Pakistan Economy: Super tax case verdict; E&Ps to benefit – By Topline Research

Jan 28 2026


Topline Securities


  • The Federal Constitution Court has announced short verdict on Super tax, which is “With respect to E&P Companies, the Commissioner shall compute the tax payable in accordance with Fifth Schedule after examining each PCA and applicable law and no super tax will be chargeable beyond the limit specified in Rule 4 of the Fifth Schedule.”
  • Based on our discussion with listed E&P companies, the super tax will now be treated in accordance with tax liability threshold given in Petroleum Concession Agreement (PCA) and Fifth Schedule of Income Tax Ordinance.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Note – By Vector Research

Feb 3 2026


Vector Securities


  • Evening Note.
Pakistan Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a positive note – By IIS Research

Feb 3 2026


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a positive note opening high early in the session, with momentum further supported by record monthly exports of USD 3.06bn. Trading volumes increased to 390mn shares today as compared to 216mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 1,843 points to close at 186,901 level, up by 1.00% DoD. Banks, Fertilizer, and Technology sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 1242 points to the index.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Feb 3 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) KSE-100 Index extended its upward momentum, hitting an intraday high of 187,519 before closing at 186,901, up 1,843 points (+1.00%). The rally was driven by broad-based buying in Commercial Banks, Fertilizer, Technology, Pharmaceuticals, and Textile composite sectors. Sentiment was further supported by strengthened trade and investment cooperation between Pakistan and Uzbekistan, Moreover, hopes of a de-escalation in US-Iran tensions. In terms of index contribution FFC, UBL, ENGROH, MEBL, and SYS collectively added 734.81 points. On the volume front, KEL led trading with 99.51 million shares, while total market turnover stood at 846.50 million shares.
Interloop Limited (ILP): Result Preview 2QFY26 – By AHCML Research

Feb 3 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Interloop Ltd (ILP) is scheduled to announce its financial results for 2QFY26 on February 4, 2026. Interloop Ltd (ILP) reports robust 2QFY26 results with PAT surging 124% YoY to PKR2,580mn, driven by strong sales growth, improved gross margins, and a significant reduction in finance costs. However, PAT declined 7.8% QoQ due to gross margin compression from lower international textile prices and adverse currency movements, which outweighed a sequential sales increase and led to declines in operating and pre-tax profit.
  • We reiterate our Buy recommendation with Target Price of PKR115 per share, reflecting confidence in the company's continued execution and growth prospects.
Oil & Gas Development Company Limited (OGDC): 2QFY26 Result Preview – By Taurus Research

Feb 3 2026


Taurus Securities


  • 2QFY26 EPS: PKR 8.56; 2QFY26 PAT down 4%QoQ.
  • Net sales for the quarter are expected to arrive at ~PKR 98.9Bn, down 2%YoY. Royalty expenses are expected to be recorded at ~PKR 10.9Bn, down 6%YoY supporting profitability.
  • Additionally, EPS for 2QFY26 is expected to arrive at PKR 8.56, down 11%YoY and 4%QoQ, mainly due to elevated exploration and operating expenses arising from dry well outcomes at Jakhro North-1 and Khatian-1, along with the ongoing drilling and seismic activities, which continue to weigh on profitability.
Oil Marketing Companies: OMC sales up 10% YoY and 12% MoM in Jan 2026; 7MFY26 sales up 3% YoY – By Topline Research

Feb 3 2026


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan's Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) recorded sales of 1.52mn tons in Jan 2026, up 10% YoY and 12% MoM.
  • The YoY increase reflects economic recovery, easing inflation, and improved control over smuggling, while the MoM rise is driven by lower petrol and diesel prices in Jan-26 and a low base following the nationwide strike in Dec 2025 that disrupted sales for around 10 days.
  • This takes total sales for 7MFY26 to 9.7mn tons, reflecting a 3% YoY increase compared to 9.4mn tons in 7MFY25.
Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK): Analyst Briefing 2QFY26 Highlights – By AHCML Research

Feb 3 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • LUCK has held an analyst briefing yesterday to discuss its financial results and future outlook. Below are the key takeaways from the briefing.
  • Pakistan cement domestic demand grew 12.5% YoY in 1HFY26 and Lucky Cement 1HFY26 sales increased to 3.36mn tons vs. 2.98mn tons in 1HFY25.
  • Approximately 56 - 57% of Lucky Cement’s energy mix comes from renewables, comprising 89.3 MW of solar capacity (including a planned 15 MW addition by Mar’26) and 28.8 MW of wind power. The remaining renewable contribution is generated through WHR systems.
Lucky Cement Ltd (LUCK): Cost optimization initiatives continue; Buy – By JS Research

Feb 3 2026


JS Global Capital


  • Lucky Cement Ltd (LUCK) held its corporate briefing yesterday to discuss 1HFY26 results and outlook. To recall, LUCK reported standalone EPS of Rs15.86 for 1HFY26, up 68% YoY, driven by stronger core performance and higher dividend income from subsidiaries. On a consolidated basis, earnings increased 13% YoY to Rs30.45/ sh.
  • Management shared that UC 3.0 technology has been commissioned on two production lines at the Karachi plant at a cost of Rs3-3.5bn, with plans to expand it to the two remaining lines. The technology is expected to improve cost efficiency by reducing coal consumption per ton of clinker produced and allowing the use of lower-cost, high-sulphur coal, with an estimated payback of 5 to 7 years.
Commercial Banks: Flat Earnings; Payouts Intact – By IIS Research

Feb 3 2026


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • We preview the IIS Banking Universe’s 4QCY25 results, where aggregate earnings are expected to remain largely flat QoQ at PKR 100bn, while delivering a 16.5% YoY growth. Despite continued pressure on net interest margins amid a declining interest-rate environment, earnings remained resilient, supported by balance-sheet expansion, contained credit costs, and disciplined expense management.
  • Net interest income is expected to increase 3.6% QoQ to PKR 340.5bn and 11.7% YoY, even as reinvestment yields remained under pressure. Margin compression was partially offset by volumetric growth, with deposits rising 20% YoY and 5.7% QoQ, supporting earning asset expansion. An improving deposit mix further helped cushion margins. On a full-year basis, CY25E NII is projected to grow 15.4% YoY, reflecting the sector’s ability to navigate a softer rate cycle.
Commercial Banks: 4QCY25 Previews: Stable earnings; Payouts intact – By Insight Research

Feb 3 2026


Insight Securities


  • We estimate profitability of ISL coverage banks to inch up by 16% YoY, while same is expected to decline by 2% QoQ. The YoY increase is mainly driven by lower ETR for the quarter compared to SPLY, further aided by volumetric expansion. While, QoQ decline is attributable to slight moderation in NIMs. Net Interest Income of the sector is likely to decline as impact of lower policy rate translates into asset yields.
  • However, some of the impact is likely to offset by balance sheet expansion as deposits grew by ~2.7% QoQ. We estimate HBL/UBL/MCB/MEBL/BAFL to post EPS of PKR11.0/13.8/11.9/12.5/3.5, respectively. We expect dividend payouts to remain robust amid healthy profits and decent buffer on adequacy ratios and expect HBL/UBL/MCB/ MEBL/BAFL to announce DPS of PKR5.0/8.0/9.0/7.0/2.5, respectively.
Oil Marketing Companies: OMC sales up 10% YoY and 12% MoM in Jan 2026; 7MFY26 sales up 3% YoY – By Topline Research

Feb 3 2026


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan's Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) recorded sales of 1.52mn tons in Jan 2026, up 10% YoY and 12% MoM.
  • The YoY increase reflects economic recovery, easing inflation, and improved control over smuggling, while the MoM rise is driven by lower petrol and diesel prices in Jan-26 and a low base following the nationwide strike in Dec 2025 that disrupted sales for around 10 days.
  • This takes total sales for 7MFY26 to 9.7mn tons, reflecting a 3% YoY increase compared to 9.4mn tons in 7MFY25.
Fertilizers: Pakistan’s urea sales for Jan 2026, 75 months low of 218k tons; Inventory at 0.63mn tons – By Topline Research

Feb 2 2026


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan urea sales in Jan 2026 is expected to clock in at 218k tons (75 months low), down by 84% MoM and 51% YoY. The sharp slowdown follows advance purchases in Dec-25, driven by higher manufacturer discounts, which pushed Dec-25 sales to an all-time high of 1.36mn tons.
  • Discounts offered by select manufacturers decreased in Jan-26, with EFERT offering Rs100 150/bag compared to Rs400/bag in Dec-25, while FFC did not offer any discounts in Jan-26 after providing Rs150-200/bag in Dec-25, as per our channel checks.
Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited (FFC): 4Q2025 EPS at Rs11.20, down 17% QoQ – By Topline Research

Jan 29 2026


Topline Securities


  • Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) announced its 4Q2025 financial result today, wherein the company recorded the unconsolidated quarterly profit of Rs15.9bn (EPS: Rs11.20), up 12% YoY and down by 17% QoQ. This takes 2025 earnings to Rs73.5bn (EPS: Rs51.69), up 14% YoY.
  • The 4Q2025 result came lower than industry expectations primarily due to lower-than expected gross margins.
Pakistan Cement: Local cement dispatches to be up by 11% YoY in 7MFY26 – By Topline Research

Jan 28 2026


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan local cement dispatches are likely to be down by 4% on YoY basis to clock in at 3.32mn tons in Jan-2026.
  • Our analysis is based on the actual numbers for 18 days, where local sales stand at 1.93mn tons.
  • The average daily domestic sales in the North were 96k tons in the first week (working days), which increased to 103k tons per day in the second week, and then rose to 105k tons per day in the third week. However, sales in the last week have declined , reaching over 100-102k tons per day in the North.
Pakistan Economy: Super tax case verdict; E&Ps to benefit – By Topline Research

Jan 28 2026


Topline Securities


  • The Federal Constitution Court has announced short verdict on Super tax, which is “With respect to E&P Companies, the Commissioner shall compute the tax payable in accordance with Fifth Schedule after examining each PCA and applicable law and no super tax will be chargeable beyond the limit specified in Rule 4 of the Fifth Schedule.”
  • Based on our discussion with listed E&P companies, the super tax will now be treated in accordance with tax liability threshold given in Petroleum Concession Agreement (PCA) and Fifth Schedule of Income Tax Ordinance.
Honda Atlas Car (HCAR): 3QMY26 EPS at Rs4.59,up 16% YoY while down 12% QoQ – lower than expectations – By Topline Research

Jan 27 2026


Topline Securities


  • Honda Atlas Car Pakistan (HCAR) announced its 3QMY26, result today, where the company recorded profit of Rs655mn (EPS of Rs4.59), up 16% YoY while down 12% QoQ.
  • The result came lower than industry expectations due to lower-than-expected gross margins and higher-than-expected effective tax rate.
  • Gross margins clocked in at 7.55% in 3QMY26 vs 9.21% in 3QMY25 and 7.56% in 2QMY26. Despite increased sales, gross margins fell as compared to last year, however the margins remained flattish on QoQ basis. We were expecting gross margins at 9%.
Pakistan Economy: Pakistan Inflation to clock in at 5.75-6.25% in Jan 2026 – By Topline Research

Jan 27 2026


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Jan 2026 is expected to clock in at 5.75-6.25% YoY vs. 5.61% in Dec 2025 and 2.40% in Jan 2025. On a MoM basis, inflation for Jan 2026 is projected at +0.57%.
  • Food Inflation has risen 1.02% MoM with key contributors to the monthly food inflation being Chicken (+21%), Wheat (+14%) and Wheat Flour (+10%). However, Potatoes, Onions and Sugar fell 34%, 26% and 11% respectively.
Pakistan Economy: SBP has decreased the Cash Reserves Ratio (CRR) to 5% - By Topline Research

Jan 26 2026


Topline Securities


  • As per the SBP governor press briefing, the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) has been reduced by 100bps to 5% on a weekly average basis and 3% daily basis, which is likely to create additional liquidity for banks. To highlight, CRR requirement for banks was increased in Nov 2021 to mop up liquidity from market amidst higher inflation levels. Reverting to old ratio shows central bank’s comfort in inflation outlook.
  • The Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) is the proportion of banks’ applicable time and demand liabilities (TDLs) that they are required to hold in the form of cash with the SBP on a fortnightly average basis. Since SBP does not remunerate deposits that banks keep with it to meet the CRR, these funds do not generate any return.
Automobile Assemblers: Topline auto universe profitability to record 35% YoY and 19% QoQ growth – By Topline Research

Jan 23 2026


Topline Securities


  • Topline Auto Universe is expected to post profitability of Rs14.7bn in 2QFY26, compared to Rs10.9bn in 2QFY25, reflecting a 35% YoY increase, primarily driven by higher passenger car sales.
  • On a QoQ basis, profitability is also projected to rise 19% supported by better economic activity, introduction of new variants, and lower interest rates, despite the typical December effect.
Pakistan Strategy: Pakistan Yields in single digit after almost 4 years – By Topline Research

Jan 22 2026


Topline Securities


  • After nearly four years of double-digit yields in Pakistan, the 12 months T-bill and 3 Year PIBs have fallen into single digit ahead of the Monetary Policy Meeting scheduled on Jan 26, 2026. In T-bills auction on Jan 21, 2026, the cut-off yield for 3 months and 6 months T-bills have come down to 9.899% and 9.949%, respectively. While secondary market yields also slipped into single digit yesterday.
  • This market expectations for rate cut also aligns with a poll conducted by Topline Securities on Jan 15, 2026, wherein, 80% participants are expecting rate cut with 56.4% expecting 50bps cut, 15.4% for 100bps cut, 5% for 25 bps cut and 3% for 75bps cut. The current secondary market yields pattern suggest a likely reduction of 50-75bps in upcoming monetary policy meeting. We expect cut of 50bps, in line with majority of the poll participants.