Pakistan Economy: MSCI Feb’26 Quarterly Index Review – By Foundation Research

Feb 11 2026


Foundation Securities


  • MSCI, the leading global provider of research-based indexes and analytics, earlier today announced the results of its Feb’26 Frontier Markets Quarterly Index Review. All changes will be implemented from 27th February 2026.
  • We believe the slightly decreased weight of Pakistan in MSCI Frontier Market Indices after the above deletions would have a mildly negative impact on foreign flows. To highlight, foreigners have been net sellers of US$337.0Mn FY26TD against foreign selling of US$304.4Mn in FY25.
Bank AL Habib (BAHL): Result Review – By Topline Research

Feb 11 2026


Topline Securities


  • Bank AL Habib (BAHL) announced its 4Q2025 result today, where the bank recorded consolidated earnings of Rs5.8bn (EPS of Rs5.20), down 23% YoY and 16% QoQ.
  • The 4Q2025 result came lower than industry expectations due to higher-than-expected operating expenses.
  • We maintain a buy stance on BAHL, with the stock currently trading at a 2026E PE ratio of 7.2x, PBV ratio of 1.2x, and dividend yield of 9.0%.
Pakistan Market Wrap: PSX Ends Higher Despite Choppy Trade – By HMFS Research

Feb 11 2026


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced a choppy yet decisively positive session, as early selling pressure dragged the index lower before a strong recovery took hold mid-morning. Sentiment improved after the State Bank of Pakistan’s governor signaled confidence in the economic outlook, projecting FY26 growth of up to 4.75%—countering the IMF’s recent downgrade. The SBP has revised its growth range upward to 3.75–4.75%, reflecting improved domestic momentum despite weaker exports and a widening trade gap in the first half of the fiscal year. Additionally, remittance inflows provided further support, rising over 11% YoY to USD 23.2bn during 7MFY26, reinforcing external account stability.
  • Strong accumulation in the final trading hours propelled the benchmark index firmly into positive territory, with the KSE-100 closing at 183,050 level—up 896 points. Market participation remained elevated, with traded volumes reaching 350mn shares on the KSE-100 and 731mn shares on the All-Share Index, reflecting sustained investor engagement. KEL (121mn shares), CNERGY (82mn shares), and FNEL (52mn shares) led the activity chart, dominating turnover for the session. In the short term, the market is likely to move within a limited range as investors assess elevated valuations alongside selective earnings strength and evolving macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape. Given this backdrop, a disciplined, stock-specific strategy remains prudent. Investors should capitalize on intermittent pullbacks to build exposure in fundamentally strong counters, while exercising caution in index-heavy names where valuations appear extended.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 183,050 up 896 points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Feb 11 2026


Alpha Capital


  • The equity market commenced the session on a strong footing and remained largely steady throughout the day. However, the KSE-100 Index witnessed notable intraday volatility, fluctuating between a low of 182,055 and a high of 183,802 before settling at 183,050, reflecting a gain of 896 points. Total volumes on the main board reached 349.6 million shares, with an aggregate traded value of PKR 25 billion.
  • Key contributors to the index’s positive performance were ENGROH (4.4%, 412 points), LUCK (2.5%, 172 points), FABL (9.1%, 126 points), MCB (2.1%, 124 points), and BAFL (2.9%, 86 points). In terms of trading activity, KEL and CNERGY led the volumes chart, recording 120.6 million and 81.6 million shares traded, respectively.
Pakistan Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a positive note – By IIS Research

Feb 11 2026


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a positive note after an initial dip at the start of the session. Trading activity remained largely stock specific in the absence of any strong positive trigger, as investors positioned themselves ahead of the ongoing results season. Trading volumes decreased to 350mn shares today as compared to 636mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 896 points to close at 183,050 level, up by 0.49% DoD. Banks, Cement, and Power sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 619 points to the index.
Pakistan Chemicals: Profitability to remain muted – By Insight Research

Feb 11 2026


Insight Securities


  • LOTCHEM is expected to post a PAT of PKR263mn (EPS: PKR0.17) in 4QCY25 vs. LAT of PKR19mn (LPS: PKR0.01) in SPLY and PAT of PKR94mn (EPS: PKR0.06) in preceding quarter. To note, International PTA prices plunged by ~4%/2% YoY/QoQ to clock in at ~US$644/ton. Consequently, core delta declined by ~16%/5% YoY/QoQ to clock in at ~US$86/ton. Company’s topline is expected to decrease by 4% YoY/QoQ to clock in at PKR19.6bn in 4QCY25 amid lower product prices. Gross margins of the company are estimated to clock in at 2.6% in 4QCY25, witnessing an increase of ~180bps YoY amid one-off in SPLY.
  • EPCL is expected to post a consolidated LAT of PKR1.2bn (LPS: PKR1.30) in 4QCY25 vs. PAT of PKR3.4bn (EPS: PKR3.75) in SPLY and LAT of PKR0.2bn (LPS: PKR0.24) in preceding quarter. Company’s topline is expected to decrease by 15%/10% YoY/QoQ to clock in at PKR18.0bn in 4QCY25, amid lower product price. Gross margins are estimated to clock in at 6.2% in 4QCY25. To note, International PVC prices decline by ~19%/7% YoY/QoQ to clock in at ~US$649/ton. Consequently, PVC-Ethylene margins witnessed a decline of ~16%/1% YoY/QoQ. Admin expense is expected to increase by 26% YoY amid higher volumetric sales, whereas same is expected to go down by ~10% QoQ. Financial charges are anticipated to decrease by 24%/6% YoY/QoQ to clock in at PKR1.3bn, primarily due to decline in interest rates and debt level.
Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC): 2QFY26 EPS clocks in at PKR 7.04, down 9% YoY – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Feb 11 2026


Alpha Capital


  • PIOC announced its 2QFY26 results today wherein the company reported an EPS of PKR 7.04, down 9% YoY. This takes cumulative earnings for 1HFY26 to PKR 12.65/share, up 4% YoY. Contrary to expectations, no dividend was announced along with the results.
  • Net sales for 2QFY26 clock in at PKR 10.3bn, up 15% YoY from PKR 8.9bn SPLY, driven by a 28% YoY increase in local dispatches to ~0.7mn tons, outpacing the North’s 12% YoY growth and offsetting a 4% YoY decline in net retention.
  • Gross margins for 2QFY26 clocked in at 30%, down 12 ppts YoY primarily reflecting the effect of increased royalty charge on 6% of ex-factory price instead of net retention. The compression in margins also reflect upward pressure on fuel cost driven by Afghan border closure.
Pakistan Economy: Sequential dip likely for Banks – By JS Research

Feb 11 2026


JS Global Capital


  • We preview 4QCY25 results for Pakistan banks which are expected to broadly report YoY decline in core income due to NIMs contraction amid declining yields.
  • Quarterly profits are likely to face pressure from weaker core income and declining asset yields, though non-interest income should offer partial support. Dividend policies for 4QCY25 are expected to be maintained.
Lucky Core Industries Limited (LCI): Corporate Briefing Notes – By Chase Research

Feb 13 2026



  • Lucky Core Industries Limited reported earnings per share (EPS) of PKR 120.62 in FY24, compared to PKR 149.12 in FY23. In 1QFY25, the company posted an EPS of PKR 28.10, slightly higher than PKR 27.21 in the same period last year.
  • The polyester and pharmaceutical segments performed well during the year, driving improved operating performance.
Pakistan Economy: MSCI Feb’26 Quarterly Index Review – By Foundation Research

Feb 11 2026


Foundation Securities


  • MSCI, the leading global provider of research-based indexes and analytics, earlier today announced the results of its Feb’26 Frontier Markets Quarterly Index Review. All changes will be implemented from 27th February 2026.
  • We believe the slightly decreased weight of Pakistan in MSCI Frontier Market Indices after the above deletions would have a mildly negative impact on foreign flows. To highlight, foreigners have been net sellers of US$337.0Mn FY26TD against foreign selling of US$304.4Mn in FY25.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; 30-DMA to restrict upside – By JS Research

Feb 11 2026


JS Global Capital


  • KSE-100 index witnessed a volatile session to close at 182,154 level, down 187 points. Volumes stood at 1,062mn shares versus 931mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to test support at 181,499 (yesterday's low) where a fall below that will target the 50-DMA at 178,377 level. However, any upside will face resistance at the 30-DMA that is currently at 184,123 level. A break above that will cause the uptrend to resume. The RSI and the MACD are moving down, supporting a negative view. We recommend investors to stay cautious on the higher side. The support and resistance are at 181,363 and 183,080 levels, respectively.
Pakistan Economy: MSCI Feb’26 Quarterly Index Review – By Foundation Research

Feb 11 2026


Foundation Securities


  • MSCI, the leading global provider of research-based indexes and analytics, earlier today announced the results of its Feb’26 Frontier Markets Quarterly Index Review. All changes will be implemented from 27th February 2026.
  • We believe the slightly decreased weight of Pakistan in MSCI Frontier Market Indices after the above deletions would have a mildly negative impact on foreign flows. To highlight, foreigners have been net sellers of US$337.0Mn FY26TD against foreign selling of US$304.4Mn in FY25.
Pakistan Cement: South exports amplified industry utilization – By Foundation Research

Feb 4 2026


Foundation Securities


  • Cement sector dispatches rose by 12.4% YoY in Jan’26 to 4.5Mn tons, resulting in enhanced capacity utilization of 60.7% vs. 55.6% in the SPLY. Despite peak winter season, local sales continued their growth momentum exhibiting a jump of 4.2% YoY to 3.6Mn tons, portraying demand recovery trend amid improved macros. Similarly, exports spiked to 0.9Mn tons with a remarkable growth of 61.1% YoY. Resurgence in exports were on account of low base effect from South exports, even in the absence of North exports due to Afghan border closure and also compensating for weakness in domestic demand in the South region.
  • Seasonality witnessed on a MoM bases where local demand fell by 3.4% given fewer day light hours, fog etc. This decline was driven by North sales exhibiting a decline of 6.5% MoM which was compensated by uptick in South sales of 13.8% MoM. However, exports in North region were significantly impacted owing to Afghan border closure. Increase in both local dispatches and exports of South region MoM resulted in overall industry dispatches reaching 4.5Mn tons, maintaining growth of 4.4% MoM.
Agritech Limited (AGL): Earning Review – By Foundation Research

Jan 29 2026


Foundation Securities


  • Agritech Limited (AGL PA) profitability clocked-in at PKR 694Mn (EPS PKR 1.2) in 4QCY25, down 29% YoY, compared to PKR 971Mn (EPS PKR 1.6) in 4QCY24.
  • This takes CY25 profitability to PKR 2.9Bn (EPS PKR 4.8), as compared to loss of PKR 1.1Bn in CY24.
  • AGL’s topline reported at PKR 12.2Bn (flat/up 18% YoY/QoQ) in 4QCY25, however, full year net revenue was recorded at PKR 35.9Bn, portraying a YoY growth of 15%.
Pakistan Cement: Profitability to drop 5% YoY in 2QFY26 – By Foundation Research

Jan 14 2026


Foundation Securities


  • FSL Cement universe profitability is forecasted to slide 5% YoY in 2QFY26 despite uptick in domestic sales and easing coal prices. This suppression in the profitability is mainly accredited to (1) normalization of gross margins, (2) higher energy cost, (3) lower exports due to Afghan border closure along with 23% YoY dip in South exports, and (4) weak prices (down 6% YoY).
  • On a quarterly basis, profitability is estimated to recede 19% QoQ in 2QFY26 owing to (1) weak domestic prices in North, (2) shift in energy mix, (3) slump in exports by 21% QoQ, and (4) attrition in other income.
Pakistan Cement: Demand remains strong – By Foundation Research

Jan 6 2026


Foundation Securities


  • Cement sector dispatches rose by 2.3% YoY in Dec’25 to 4.3Mn tons, while capacity utilization increased to a mere of 59.1% vs. a muted 57.4% in the SPLY. Despite winter season, local sales exhibited a surge of 7.4% YoY to 3.7Mn tons, showing demand recovery trend amid improved macros. However, exports declined by a sizable 20.7% YoY to reach 0.6Mn tons. Decline in exports were on account of high base effect from South exports, absence of North exports due to Afghan border closure and compensating rise in domestic demand post floods.
  • Demand continues its uptrend where local dispatches grew by 4.9% MoM despite the winter season as historically cement sales dip during these months. Local demand continued to show early signs of recovery in the aftermath of floods, aided by improved macros. However, exports were significantly impacted, owing to Afghan border closure given absence of North exports and improved local sales.
Oil Marketing Companies (OMC): Volumetric growth rebounds – By Foundation Research

Jan 5 2026


Foundation Securities


  • Petroleum sales reversed the decline of last month to post positive growth of 6% YoY (down 5% MoM) at 1.4Mn tons despite decline in HSD sales of 4% YoY (down 19% MoM) given the 10-day dealer strike in Dec’25. Whereas MS/FO sales rose 11/40% YoY in the outgoing month. During 1HFY26, sales witnessed an increase of 2% YoY to 8.2Mn tons despite low utilization of FO. Company-wise analysis depicts that PSO/APL volumes fell 7/7% YoY, respectively, while WAFI/HASCOL volumes enhanced 10/9% YoY during Dec’25.
  • White oil: Domestic petroleum sales (ex-non Energy) depicted a 6% YoY incline during the month, while white oil sales climbed 4% YoY (down 9% MoM). Product wise, MS sales increased 11% YoY (up 3% MoM) to clock-in at 628K tons. Whereas, HSD sales dropped 4% YoY (down 19% MoM) to 553K tons during Dec’25. During 1HFY26, sales accelerated 2% YoY due to an increase of 3% YoY in White oil sales given improved macros. Whereas MS/HSD sales boosted 3/3% YoY in 1HFY26. Prices of MS/HSD moderated by 0.7/3.1% MoM to average Rs265.2/274.3/liter, respectively, during Dec’25.
Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK): 1QFY26 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By Foundation Research

Dec 30 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK PA) conducted its 1QFY26 analyst briefing today to discuss financial/operational performance and outlook of the company. Below are key takeaways from the session.
  • To recall, Lucky Cement Limited’s (LUCK PA) consolidated profitability clocked-in at PKR 23.6Bn (EPS PKR 15.01, up 19/10% YoY/QoQ) in 1QFY26 against a profit of PKR 19.8Bn (EPS PKR 12.24) in 1QFY25.
  • On a standalone basis, profitability was recorded at PKR 14.62Bn in 1QFY26 translating into an EPS of PKR 9.98, against PAT and EPS of PKR 6.5Bn and PKR 4.48, respectively, in the SPLY (up 2.23/2.54x YoY/QoQ).
Fatima Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FATIMA): 9MCY25 Analyst Briefing Key Takeaways – By Foundation Research

Dec 26 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited (FATIMA PA) held its analyst briefing on 24 December 2025 to discuss its 9MCY25 financial/operational results and outlook of the company. Following are the key takeaways.
  • Total fertilizer industry volumes declined 3.5% YoY during 9MCY25 as nitrogen fell 1.7% YoY and phosphate plummeted 8.7% YoY. FATIMA increased its market share by 4.6/4.2ppts YoY in Nit/Phos to 26.9/40.9% respectively.
Pakistan Economy: MPS Surprise 50bps cut in policy rate – By Foundation Research

Dec 15 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Today, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to cut the policy rate by 50bps to 10.5%. The decision was made considering inflation remained within the target range of 5-7% during 5MFY26, despite relatively sticky core inflation. The MPC believes economic activity is gaining traction, driven by improvements in key indicators like large-scale manufacturing. However, global challenges, particularly for exports, may impact the macroeconomic outlook. The MPC noted the available space to reduce the policy rate to support growth on a sustainable basis while maintaining price stability.
  • MPC noted several key developments. The FY25 Labor Force Survey indicates an increase in the unemployment rate from FY21, despite faster employment growth. SBP's FX reserves have risen to USD 15.8Bn, aided by a USD 1.2Bn IMF receipt. Consumer confidence has improved, while business confidence has moderated slightly. The overall and primary fiscal balances recorded surpluses in 1QFY26, led by a sizable SBP profit transfer. Globally, commodity prices are supportive, but financial conditions remain challenging with evolving tariff dynamics.
Pakistan Economy: IMF: Further reforms needed – By Foundation Research

Dec 12 2025


Foundation Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released the detailed report upon approval by its Executive Board of the 2nd review of the USD 7.0Bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and 1st review of the USD 1.3Bn Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The IMF report cited the governments’ strong program implementation as 6 of 7 quantitative criteria, 4 of 8 indicative targets, and most continuous and other structural benchmarks were met at end-June 2025. This has maintained stability and improved financing and external conditions.
  • Pakistan’s 37-month EFF was approved on September 25, 2024, and aims to build resilience and enable sustainable growth. The program’s priorities remain centered on (i) entrenching macroeconomic stability through consistent implementation of sound macro policies, including rebuilding international reserve buffers and broadening the tax base; (ii) advancing reforms to strengthen competition and raise productivity and competitiveness; and (iii) reforming SOEs and improving public service provision, developing human and physical capital, and restoring energy sector viability.