Following a breach in the protective bund at the Tarbela Dam 5th Extension Project (T-5), water discharge from Tarbela Dam surged by 162%, causing the reservoir level to drop by 7 feet within 48 hours. However, according to IRSA data, the provincial water shares of Punjab and Sindh will not be negatively affected as the excess flow has been absorbed by Chashma Barrage.

Discharges from Tarbela surged from 55,000 cusecs before the November 9 incident to a peak of 144,200 cusecs, dropping Tarbela's live storage from 2.791 million acre-feet (MAF) to 2.496 MAF. Concurrently, Chashma Barrage recorded an inflow jump from 51,600 cusecs to 106,600 cusecs while keeping outflows controlled, boosting Chashma's live storage more than threefold from 0.040 MAF to 0.132 MAF.

While flows increased at Kalabagh and Chashma, downstream flows at Sukkur and Kotri barrages remained stable. Total national reservoir live storage declined slightly from 6.452 MAF to 6.148 MAF over the two-day period.

Investor Takeaway: Although work on the T-5 extension project has been suspended indefinitely, effective water management by IRSA prevents immediate agricultural or water supply disruptions for the provinces.